Actions of Science games (NASDAQ: SGMS) grew over the past two months after the company reported strong growth in its Lottery, SciPlay and Digital segments in the first quarter. With the reopening of conventional casinos and increased demand for air travel in the first quarter, Scientific Games’ SciPlay and Digital segments saw 37% (year-on-year) growth in average revenue per user and 71%. (year-on-year) of online betting, respectively. Thus, investor optimism has led to a monumental rise in stock prices since early May. On the contrary, shares of leading online casino companies Draft Kings and Penn National Gaming tend to fall due to stiff competition in the sports betting industry. Notably, SGMS ‘SciPlay and Digital segments also face stiff competition from Zynga and International Game Technology, respectively. Additionally, the company’s Gaming segment, which contributes nearly 50% of SGMS revenue and profit, is expected to experience tighter demand for a few years.
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in historical data on a company’s stock prices, Scientific Games stock will likely gain 3.2% over the next month (twenty-one trading days). given the -0.2% drop last week (five trading days).
But how would those numbers change if you wanted to hold Scientific Games shares for a longer or shorter period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test the chances of a rise in science games stocks after a fall. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month, or even a single day!
MACHINE LEARNING MOTOR – try it yourself:
IF SGMS shares have moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, the SGMS share evolves average 6.6%, with a 56.6% probability of a positive return over this period.
In addition, given a movement of -5% for the stock over 5 trading days, it has historically experienced a excess return 5.4% to the S & P500 over the next 21 trading days, with a 54.5% percent chance of a positive excess return
Some fun scenarios, FAQs and explanation of science game stock movements:
Question 1: Is the average return on Scientific Games shares higher after a decline?
Reply: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Scientific Games stock drops -5% or more in one week
Case 2: Scientific Games stock increases by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return on Scientific Games shares higher in the next month after Case 1 or Case 2?
SGMS stock fares better after case 1, with an average return of 6.6% during the following month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% during the previous week), against an average return 3.7% for case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in case 1, and an average return of only 0.5% for case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the average return of the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Scientific Games stocks are likely to behave after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Reply: If you buy and hold shares in Scientific Games, it is expected that over time short-term fluctuations will cancel each other out and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is by. elsewhere solid.
All in all, according to data and calculations from the machine learning engine Trefis, patience absolutely pays for most actions!
For the SGMS share, the returns over the following N days after a -5% variation over the last 5 trading days are detailed in the table below, as well as the returns of the S & P500:
You can try the engine out to see what this table looks like for science games after a larger loss in the past week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait a while?
The average return after a rise is naturally lower than that after a fall, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, however, if a stock has won in the last few days, you’d better avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although SGMS stock seems to be an exception to this general observation.
The returns of SGMS over the next N days after a 5% change in the last 5 trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns of the S & P500:
It is powerful enough to test the trend of Scientific Games stocks yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
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